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extrapolation

Using an interpolating polynomial to estimate f outside the range of the nodes it was built from -- a genuinely different, and much riskier, act than interpolating inside that range.

Extrapolation evaluates an interpolating polynomial P at a point x lying outside the interval [\min_i x_i, \max_i x_i] spanned by its nodes. The interpolation error formula still applies formally, but the node-product term \prod(x-x_i) it depends on is no longer bounded by the nodes surrounding x on both sides -- it grows without any such check as x moves farther from the data, so the same polynomial that fit the known data well can diverge sharply and without warning just beyond it.

Examples

  • A polynomial fit to a stock's last 10 days of prices can track them closely, then swing wildly if evaluated even a few days past the last known point.

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