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Recipe

Find the capacity for a stated confidence level

Use when: a parameter is uniform on [a, b] and you are given a target confidence level 1 - alpha (or a risk level alpha to convert first)

Goal: the smallest capacity x satisfying P(theta <= x) >= 1 - alpha

Taught in Chance-constrained optimization

  1. 1

    Write down the range [a,b] and the confidence level 1-\alpha. If only a risk level \alpha is stated, compute 1-\alpha first.

    Why: the quantile formula below needs exactly these three numbers, in this form.

  2. 2

    Compute x=a+(1-\alpha)(b-a).

    Example

    [a,b]=[100,200], confidence 0.9: x=100+0.9(100)=190.

    Why: this is the exact point where the uniform distribution's cumulative probability first reaches 1-\alpha.

  3. 3

    Check a\le x\le b.

    • the result falls outside [a,b] — the stated confidence level was outside [0,1]; recheck the inputs.
    • the result falls inside [a,b] — the capacity is confirmed.

    Why: a confidence level genuinely between 0\% and 100\% always produces a capacity inside the parameter's own plausible range.

Common mistakes

  • Plugging in \alpha where the formula wants 1-\alpha, which silently swaps the required capacity with the LEFTOVER risk.
  • Forgetting that \alpha=0 (zero risk) is a real, valid input. It just recovers the full worst-case capacity, b.
  • Applying this exact formula to a non-uniform distribution, where the quantile is generally NOT this simple linear expression.