Statistics
Estimation, inference, regression, and statistical model evaluation -- built on probability, in service of reasoning carefully about data.
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- Chapter overview
- Proportions, percentages, and rates ~10 min
- Sigma notation and the arithmetic mean ~8 min
- Weighted averages ~8 min
- Sets and events, refreshed ~6 min
- Probability as long-run relative frequency ~6 min
- Random variables and expected value, refreshed ~8 min
- Area under a curve as a proportion ~8 min
- Reading a table of data ~6 min
1 What statistics is π
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- Deterministic vs. statistical questions ~8 min
- Populations, samples, and the inference gap ~8 min
- Parameters vs. statistics ~8 min
- Descriptive vs. inferential statistics ~8 min
- Observations, variables, and the data matrix ~8 min
- Qualitative vs. quantitative variables ~8 min
- Discrete vs. continuous variables ~8 min
- Levels of measurement ~10 min
- What a statistic cannot tell you ~8 min
2 Collecting data π
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- Census vs. sample ~6 min
- Observational studies vs. experiments, previewed ~8 min
- Simple random sampling ~8 min
- Stratified sampling ~8 min
- Cluster sampling ~8 min
- Systematic sampling ~6 min
- Convenience and voluntary-response sampling ~8 min
- Undercoverage and sampling bias ~8 min
- Nonresponse and response bias ~8 min
- Choosing a sampling design ~8 min
3 Designing experiments π
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- Experimental units and treatments ~8 min
- Control groups and the placebo effect ~8 min
- Randomization and why it works ~8 min
- Replication and blocking ~8 min
- Matched-pairs designs ~8 min
- Confounding variables ~8 min
- Blinding and double-blinding ~6 min
- Causation vs. correlation: a first pass ~8 min
- Ethical considerations in experiments ~6 min
- Reading a study's design critically ~8 min
4 Displaying one variable π
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- Raw data to a frequency table ~8 min
- Relative and cumulative frequency ~8 min
- Choosing class intervals ~8 min
- The histogram ~8 min
- Bar charts and pie charts, categorical data ~8 min
- Dot plots and stem-and-leaf plots ~8 min
- Line graphs and time series ~8 min
- The box plot, previewed ~8 min
- Scatterplots, previewed ~6 min
- Choosing the right display ~8 min
5 Measures of center π
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- The mean ~6 min
- The median ~8 min
- The mode ~6 min
- Mean from a frequency table ~8 min
- The trimmed mean ~8 min
- Mean vs. median under skew ~8 min
- Resistant vs. non-resistant measures ~8 min
- Choosing a measure of center ~8 min
6 Measures of spread π
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- The range ~6 min
- Deviations from the mean ~7 min
- Variance, defined ~8 min
- Standard deviation and its units ~7 min
- Population vs. sample standard deviation ~8 min
- The interquartile range ~7 min
- The mean absolute deviation ~6 min
- Comparing spread across datasets ~7 min
- Why standard deviation, not variance, for interpretation ~6 min
7 Position, percentiles, and standardization π
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- Percentiles and quantiles ~7 min
- Quartiles and the five-number summary ~7 min
- The interquartile range, revisited ~6 min
- The 1.5ΓIQR outlier rule ~8 min
- The z-score ~7 min
- Standardizing a distribution ~6 min
- Comparing scores across different distributions ~8 min
- Reading a box plot ~7 min
8 From sample to sampling distribution π
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- A statistic is a random variable, revisited ~7 min
- Simulating the sampling distribution of a mean ~8 min
- Simulating the sampling distribution of a proportion ~7 min
- Conditions for the normal approximation ~8 min
- Standard error, applied ~7 min
- Effect of sample size on standard error ~7 min
- Bias vs. variability in an estimator ~8 min
- Where probability ends and statistics begins ~6 min
9 Confidence intervals: the idea π
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- Point estimates vs. interval estimates ~6 min
- What a margin of error is ~6 min
- Building a confidence interval from a standard error ~8 min
- Confidence level, defined ~7 min
- What 95% confidence does mean ~8 min
- What 95% confidence does not mean ~8 min
- Confidence level vs. precision ~7 min
- Reading a reported confidence interval ~7 min
10 Confidence intervals for a mean π
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- The one-sample z interval, known sigma ~7 min
- Why sigma is rarely known in practice ~6 min
- The Student's t distribution ~8 min
- Degrees of freedom ~7 min
- The one-sample t interval ~8 min
- Conditions for a valid t interval ~7 min
- Sample size and interval width ~7 min
- Choosing z vs. t ~6 min
11 Confidence intervals for a proportion π
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- The sample proportion as an estimator ~6 min
- The one-proportion z interval ~8 min
- Conditions for a valid proportion interval ~7 min
- Margin of error for a proportion ~6 min
- Choosing a sample size in advance ~8 min
- Proportions in polling, an applied read ~6 min
12 Hypothesis testing: the logic π
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- The null and alternative hypotheses ~7 min
- Assuming the null to judge the evidence ~7 min
- The test statistic ~7 min
- The p-value ~8 min
- Significance level, alpha ~7 min
- The critical-region view ~7 min
- Type I and Type II errors ~8 min
- The power of a test ~8 min
- Statistical vs. practical significance ~7 min
- One-tailed vs. two-tailed tests ~8 min
13 One-sample tests π
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- The one-sample z test for a mean ~7 min
- The one-sample t test for a mean ~7 min
- The one-sample test for a proportion ~7 min
- Matching a test to its conditions ~6 min
- The test-interval duality ~7 min
- Interpreting a p-value correctly ~6 min
- Common p-value misreadings ~6 min
- Writing a full test conclusion ~6 min
14 Comparing two groups π
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- Independent vs. paired samples ~6 min
- The sampling distribution of a difference in means ~7 min
- The two-sample t test, independent samples ~8 min
- Pooled vs. unpooled variance ~8 min
- The paired t test ~7 min
- The two-sample z test for proportions ~7 min
- Confidence interval for a difference ~7 min
- Effect size, a first look ~6 min
- Choosing the right two-group procedure ~8 min
15 Categorical data and chi-square π
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- Contingency tables ~6 min
- Expected counts under independence ~7 min
- The chi-square statistic ~7 min
- The chi-square distribution's shape ~6 min
- The chi-square goodness-of-fit test ~8 min
- The chi-square test of independence ~8 min
- The chi-square test of homogeneity ~8 min
- Conditions and common misuses ~7 min
16 Correlation π
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- Scatterplots and association, revisited ~6 min
- Strength and direction of a linear relationship ~7 min
- The Pearson correlation coefficient ~8 min
- Interpreting r ~7 min
- Correlation is not causation, formalized ~7 min
- Outliers and influential points on r ~7 min
- When correlation is the wrong tool ~7 min
17 Linear regression π
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- The least-squares line ~7 min
- Slope and intercept, interpreted ~6 min
- Making a prediction from the line ~5 min
- Residuals ~6 min
- The residual plot ~6 min
- R^2, the proportion of variance explained ~7 min
- Standard error of the regression ~6 min
- Conditions for a valid linear model ~7 min
- Extrapolation ~6 min
- Influential points on the regression line ~7 min
18 Multiple regression π
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- Adding a second predictor ~8 min
- Interpreting a partial-slope coefficient ~8 min
- Multiple R^2 and adjusted R^2 ~9 min
- Categorical predictors as dummy variables ~8 min
- Multicollinearity ~8 min
- Interaction effects, a first look ~8 min
- Prediction vs. explanation ~8 min
- Reading a multiple-regression output table ~8 min
19 Analysis of variance π
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- Comparing more than two means at once ~7 min
- Within-group and between-group variation ~8 min
- The F-statistic ~8 min
- Reading an ANOVA table ~7 min
- One-way ANOVA ~8 min
- Post-hoc comparisons, a first look ~8 min
- Conditions for ANOVA ~8 min
20 Nonparametric methods π
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- When parametric conditions fail ~6 min
- Rank-based methods, the idea ~6 min
- The sign test ~7 min
- The Wilcoxon signed-rank test ~8 min
- The Mann-Whitney U test ~8 min
- Trade-offs against a parametric test ~7 min
21 Reading statistical output π
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- What software adds beyond a hand calculation ~6 min
- Reading a regression output table ~8 min
- Reading an ANOVA output table ~7 min
- Reading a hypothesis-test output block ~7 min
- Data-cleaning judgment calls ~7 min
- Reproducibility as a habit, not a tool ~6 min
22 Statistical reasoning in the wild π
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- Misinterpreting a p-value ~6 min
- Misinterpreting a confidence interval ~6 min
- Selection bias and survivorship bias ~7 min
- Simpson's paradox ~8 min
- The ecological fallacy ~7 min
- Regression to the mean ~7 min
- The multiple-comparisons problem ~7 min
- Misleading visualizations ~6 min
- Small-sample overreach ~6 min
- Overfitting a model ~7 min